President John F. Kennedy once ignited the American spirit with a call to conquer space, declaring, “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” Space, however, proves to be an unforgiving frontier, as evidenced by a recent setback in a promising private-sector lunar mission.
The joint venture between Astrobotic Technology and the United Launch Alliance, featuring their lunar lander Peregrine on a Vulcan Centaur rocket, aimed to achieve a historic milestone. Boasting contributions from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Blue Origin, this mission was a key part of NASA’s Artemis Program, with plans to mark the first American moon landing in over 50 years and the inaugural private company and commercial sector moon landing.
Despite a flawless launch from Cape Canaveral, Peregrine faced propulsion system issues after reaching orbit, leading to the mission's cancellation due to a propellant leak. Undeterred, both NASA and the private sector plan a second attempt in February. This time, Elon Musk's SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry payloads for the American space agency in collaboration with Intuitive Machines, aiming for a lunar landing on Feb. 22, potentially making it the first private company to achieve this feat.
These endeavors symbolize NASA's evolving strategy in space exploration. Administrator Bill Nelson emphasized a "golden era of exploration," underlining the agency's return to the moon as a stepping stone for learning, living, creating, and eventually journeying to Mars. Despite acknowledging the importance of safety, the recent update to the Artemis program schedule, viewed by some as a delay, illustrates the technical challenges involved.
Artemis II, a crewed mission circling the moon without landing, is now slated for September 2025, with Artemis III set for 2026, featuring the first woman and man of color to land on the lunar south pole. Artemis IV remains on schedule for 2028. Technical issues, specifically related to the capsule's heat shield and life support system electronics, underscore the complexities of space exploration.
Despite challenges and delays, a new era has dawned on space exploration with the advent of commercialization. The space economy is projected to surge by 74% by 2030, reaching a value of $642 billion. The failures of today are stepping stones to future successes, marking the irreversible entry of the private sector into space alongside governments.
However, as humanity ventures further into space, challenges intensify. The increasing number of satellites in orbit, reaching 11,330 as of June 2023, raises concerns about congestion, collision risks, and the proliferation of debris. Projections suggest that 22,000 new satellites may launch by 2030, with SpaceX alone aiming for 40,000. The European Space Agency estimates a staggering 170 million pieces of debris in orbit, posing threats to satellites, the International Space Station, and future space operations.
The absence of a new international treaty on space prompts nations to craft their own space laws, fostering a potential Wild West scenario. Space governance faces critical gaps, necessitating innovative solutions for debris monitoring and removal. The challenges are monumental, and the current technology is in its infancy.
Space is not only congested but also contested, with major powers designating it a warfighting or operational domain and establishing space forces. The true battleground, however, will be over celestial bodies like the moon, rich in resources crucial for energy production and transition. The commercial sector's entry into space exploration coincides with weak space governance and an outdated UN Outer Space Treaty.
As nations seek solutions and define their space laws, conflicts may arise. The competition for the moon's resources, including energy-rich helium-3 and precious materials in asteroids, could spark tensions. Resource extraction from asteroids, as discussed by space experts, may even have severe consequences for Earth's economy.
This space race unfolds amidst evolving space governance, where outdated treaties fail to address new developments. The Artemis Accords, the US Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, and other national laws attempt to navigate these complexities but face criticism and challenges. The lack of clarity regarding sovereignty, safety zones on the moon, and resource extraction adds further complications.
A recent lunar mission involving the United Launch Alliance drew attention when Native Americans protested the payload carrying DNA and human cremains to the moon. This cultural and ethical concern raises questions about responsibility, as the mission was undertaken by a private company. However, the Outer Space Treaty is clear that states party to the treaty bear international responsibility for activities in outer space, regardless of whether governmental agencies or non-governmental entities are involved.
The entry of the private sector into space exploration, in the absence of clear guidelines, laws, and international treaties, opens a Pandora's box. The heavens, once a realm of inspiration and exploration, risk becoming a new domain for conflict. As humanity steps into this uncharted territory, getting it right is paramount, considering the challenges of congestion, contestation, and competition that space faces.
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